When giving advice on who to play I prefer not to say ‘Start player x’ or ‘Sit player y’ because I don’t know who everyone has on their bench.  Telling you to sit a borderline QB when all the options available to you in your league are worse doesn’t do you much good.  So instead I’ll make references to the classic spaghetti western.  Assume the players who aren’t mentioned here should produce within their usual point range.

Feel free to ask questions about your specific scenario in the comments section below and I’ll try and answer before game time.  Make sure you include league type, number of players, etc.

Legend:

Good – These players have promising match ups and should provide owners with 10-25% above their usual fantasy production.

Bad – These players have challenging match ups and will likely produce 10-25% less than their usual fantasy points.

Ugly – These players should not be started this week if at all possible.

Week Fifteen

It’s the fantasy playoff semi-finals, very little margin for error if you want to make it to the championship game.  You and your opponent both have quality lineups that got you this far, most likely it’s going to come down to which players you start and which ones you leave on your bench that will determine your fate.

New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons

Weather: Dome

Playing Surface: Artificial Turf

Good:

Matt Ryan

Julio Jones

Roddy White

Tony Gonzalez

The matchup says these three will have a field day but I’m not convinced it will happen.  The Giants seem to be coming on lately, they’re playing better than their season-long struggles against the pass would indicate.  All these guys are must-starts I just feel I have to add the caveat that it wouldn’t surprise me if the Falcons lay an egg in this game.

Take A Chance On:

David Wilson

Ahmad Bradshaw was ruled out yesterday so with Andre Brown on IR Wilson gets the start.  He had a monster game last week and has a pretty good matchup here.  He should make a solid RB2 this week.

The Rest:

Manning is a low-end QB1 according to my raw numbers but I could see him having a better day than that.  Martellus Bennett is a startable TE1, Michael Turner a decent RB2.  Victor Cruz is a WR1 and I have to rank Hakeem Nicks as just a WR2, mostly because he’s too much of an in-game injury risk.

Minnesota Vikings @ St. Louis Rams

Weather: Dome

Playing Surface: Artificial Turf

Good:

Adrian Peterson

The Rams run D is pretty good, but there’s no stopping AP these days.  Expect a banner day from All-Day.

Ugly:

Christian Ponder

Jerome Simpson

Jarius Wright

Michael Jenkins

Kyle Rudolph

Ponder has been so bad without Percy Harvin, he’s bringing down what little fantasy value the rest of the Vikings WR corps may have had.  I would not start any of these players this week, although Rudolph I can understand as a desperation TE1 play.

The Rest:

Leave Sam Bradford on your bench if you have him.  Steven Jackson is a low end RB2 in my opinion.  Danny Amendola’s injury problems leaves him at the low end of WR2 options this week.  He’s listed as probable but if that changes, Chris Givens gets a bump up to a high end WR3.  As it is no other Rams receivers should be in your lineup this week if you have other viable options.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins

Weather: 69/79f Mostly Sunny

Playing Surface: Grass

Good:

Reggie Bush

Bush hasn’t been very productive lately but that should change this week.  The tasty match up against the Jaguars run D puts Bush near the top of my RB2 rankings.

Ugly:

Jaguars RB

Montell Owens looks like he will get the start against the Fins stout run defense.  This would be a bad match up for a quality running back, for Owens it’s a total mismatch.  Don’t waste your time grabbing him off waivers for this week.

Take A Chance On: Mercedes Lewis

If he’s available via waivers in your league and you’re in dire need of a tight end this week, give him a shot.  He’s been decent lately and could give you just enough points to help win your week.

The Rest:

Chad Henne and Ryan Tannehill should both be on the bench.  Cecil Shorts looks like he’ll play and could be a solid WR2.  Brian Hartline is a viable WR3 this week.  Davone Bess is out, but I don’t think Marlon Moore or Rishard Mathews will benefit enough to make them fantasy worthy.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

Weather: 34/51f Slight Chc Showers

Playing Surface: Grass

Bad:

Brandon Marshall

Jay Cutler

Alex Green

Greg Jennings

James Jones

Randall Cobb

Jermichael Finley

The match up isn’t terrible but with Cutler hurting I have to downgrade them both a little bit more than the numbers indicate.  I still have Marshall as a low end WR1 / high end WR2, I think some other fantasy advice folks put a little too much stock into him being shut down by the Pack way back in week two.  Cutler doesn’t make the grade as a starting QB this week.  The Bears run D has struggled recently but not enough to make Green a starting RB option in my opinion.  Cobb and Jennings set nicely as WR2’s and Jones is a decent WR3 start.  Finley has looked a bit better recently and while his numbers and match up don’t quite support it I think he can be your TE1 this week if you need one.

Take A Chance On:

Eric Weems

This one is a real long shot, and only applies if Devin Hester doesn’t play.  Weems will handle return duties regardless but with Earl Bennett out, if Hester sits too Weems should be the number 3 wideout.  At best he’s a WR3 for fantasy and again, it’s a real gamble you only want to consider if you’re really out of options.

The Rest:

Matt Forte grades out to just a RB2 this week, but with good upside.  Michael Bush is questionable but even if he plays I can see a limited workload for him.  Alshon Jeffery could be a sneaky WR3 option here with the potential for more productivity.

Washington Redskins @ Cleveland Browns

Weather: 40/48f Chance Showers

Playing Surface: Grass

Good:

Alfred Morris

Josh Gordon

Brandon Weeden

Cleveland’s run defense is pretty good and even if RGIII plays the Skins won’t be calling too many planned RGIII running plays and will likely tell him to limit his scrambling and make sure he avoids potential hits to his knee.  The defense can focus more on Morris which takes a little shine off his prospects.  I would put Morris as just a low end RB1 / high end RB2 regardless whether RGII plays.  Gordon is a good WR2 play this week but despite the good match up I wouldn’t start Weeden unless you don’t have another quality option.

Bad:

Trent Richardson

Washington is top ten giving up fantasy points against the run.  That makes Richardson just a low end RB2 option this week.

Take A Chance On:

Greg Little

It’s a gamble but if you’re desperate it’s a good match up for Little and the Browns.  He could provide WR3 or better numbers especially in PPR formats.

The Rest:

What to do about RGIII?  As I mentioned it’s tough to gauge how effective RGIII will be if he plays.  Assuming you drafted RGIII as a backup or for a QB time share, if you still have your other quality QB you may want to start him instead depending on his match up.  Of course with RGIII being so successful you may have traded or even dropped your alternate QB in favor of another player in which case you’ll likely have to put RGIII in and hope he’s OK.  My gut feeling is he will start and be effective enough to be a low end QB1 at worst.  If Kirk Cousins starts I don’t have enough faith in him yet to advise you to take a chance with him.  Pierre Garcon I think is still reliable as a WR2.

Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens

Weather: 52/77f Thunderstorms Likely

Playing Surface: Artificial Turf

Good:

Peyton Manning

Demaryius Thomas

Eric Decker

Peyton and his top wideouts should do well again this week.  Manning is a QB1 of course, and Thomas I have as my top receiving option for fantasy this week.  Decker is a high end WR2.

Bad:

Ray Rice

Joe Flacco

Torrey Smith

Anquan Boldin

Based on the numbers I would have Rice sliding down to an RB2 this week but it sounds as though the new coordinator will be smarter than the old one and give Rice plenty of carries.  I’d still slot Rice into an RB1 spot.  Flacco probably shouldn’t start for you this week, but at this stage of the season you may not have a better option.  Plug him in and hope for the best.  Smith and Boldin are no better than WR3 this week, with Smith having more upside.

The Rest:

Knowshon Moreno is a quality RB2, neither Dreessen nor Tamme are viable TE1 candidates.

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

Weather: Dome

Playing Surface: Grass

Good:

Andrew Luck

Arian Foster

Andre Johnson

Owen Daniels

Matt Schaub

Reggie Wayne

TY Hilton

As early as a month ago Luck and Wayne would be listed under bad, but something in wrong with the Texans.  The media are fawning over the way the Pats dominated last week but Houston gave up a pile of points to the Lions and the Jaguars (maybe they’re allergic to cats?) before settling down against the Titans.  That’s three of their past four games where the defense has looked vulnerable to say the least.  Both Luck and Wayne are strong starts at QB1 and WR1 respectively.  Foster is a no-brainer at RB1 with Johnson a strong WR1 and Daniels a quality TE1.  Schaub barely qualifies as a QB1.  Hilton has proven himself to be a more than viable WR2.

Bad:

Vick Ballard

While the Texan’s pass D has proven leaky they have still been stout against the run.  Expect very little fantasy production from Ballard.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints

Weather: Dome

Playing surface: Artificial Turf

GOLD:

Drew Brees

Marques Colston

Lance Moore

Jimmy Graham

If Brees and the gang weren’t struggling a bit of late I think I’d have to rate this as platinum.  The second ranked fantasy passing game against the worst ranked fantasy pass defense.  Nothing more to say really.  Brees comes out as my highest ranked QB this week, Graham the top TE and Colston misses out by fractions of being the top WR.  Moore is also a WR1 option this week.

Good:

Doug Martin

Josh Freeman

Vincent Jackson

Mike Williams

Dallas Clark

Martin has a great match up this week and remains a high end RB1 this week.  Freeman is a solid start at QB and Jackson is a great WR1 option.  Williams is a low end WR1 / high end WR2.  Despite the good match up I don’t quite see Clark as a viable TE1 option but you can start him in a pinch and hope he continues his recent production.

Ugly:

Pierre Thomas

Mark Ingram

The Bucs are giving up the least amount of fantasy points on the ground and the Saints have been less than stellar running the ball when they even bother trying.  Keep both these guys on the bench this week.

Take A Chance On:

Devery Henderson

If there’s a game where Henderson has a better than average chance to be fantasy relevant this is it.  He’ll get open behind the Bucs secondary several times the question is will Brees find him, and trust him to make a catch.  If you need a WR3 he could be your man, but he’s certainly a boom or bust play.

The Rest:

Darren Sproles is in a bit of an odd place.  As a runner he faces a horrible match up but as a pass catcher he faces almost the best possible match up.  I don’t have him as a capable RB2 this week but I wouldn’t blame you for starting him if you have him.  You just have to hope he can break a couple of nice catch and run plays.

Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals

Weather: Dome

Playing Surface: Grass

Bad:

Larry Fitzgerald

Beanie Wells

William Powell

Fitzgerald can’t catch a cold from either of his quarterbacks, through no fault of his own.  You can’t start him period.  Neither Wells nor Powell are fantasy options either.

Good:

Mikel Leshoure

Leshoure has a decent match up and is a low end RB1 this week.

The Rest:

Matthew Stafford is fine as a QB1 option despite the quality pass defense of the Cardinals.  Megatron is fine as a WR1 play this week.  Brandon Pettigrew is doubtful to play but wouldn’t be a quality start anyway.  Neither WR Mike Thomas nor Kris Durham are worth starting.

Carolina Panthers @ San Diego Chargers

Weather: 51/60f Slight Chc Showers

Playing Surface: Grass

Bad:

DeAngelo Williams

With Jonathan Stewart ruled out Williams gets the start for the Panthers.  Despite the train wreck that is the Chargers they have a top five run defense in fantasy so don’t put Williams in your lineup unless you really have no other options.

The Rest:

Cam Newton is a strong QB1 start this week, Greg Olsen is solid at TE1.  Steve Smith ranks as a mid level WR2 for this game, while Brandon LaFell is a high end WR3 option if he plays, which is 50-50 at this point.  Problem is it’s a late game so unless you have another late game option you’ll want to sit LaFell.  Louis Murphy is not a reliable option if LaFell is out.  Philip Rivers is not a starting option, and neither is Ryan Mathews.  Antonio Gates is not a good option at TE but you may not have another decent option, at least Gates has some upside.  Danario Alexander is a top WR2 play and Malcom Floyd a decent WR3.

Seattle Seahawks @ Buffalo Bills (at Toronto)

Weather: Dome

Playing Surface: Artificial Turf

Good:

Marshawn Lynch

The Bills run D has improved but not enough to stop Lynch in my opinion.  He’s still a top five RB1 option.

Bad:

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Stevie Johnson

Scott Chandler

Russell Wilson

Sidney Rice

The Seahawks D isn’t as dominating on the road but they’re still plenty good enough to stop Fitzpatrick, Johnson, Chandler and the rest of the Bills passing attack.  Keep them all on the bench if you have any other valid options.  I’m reading and hearing plenty of talk about Wilson being a good start this week but I’m not seeing it.  I wouldn’t be starting Wilson, or Rice if you have other options.

The Rest:

C.J. Spiller has the backfield to himself with Fred Jackson out.  At least I assume he does but Chan Gailey trying to split the carries with Tashard Choice wouldn’t surprise me.  For some reason he doesn’t seem to want Spiller to be the lead dog.  Spiller is still an RB1 option despite my misgivings.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Dallas Cowboys

Weather: Dome

Playing Surface: Artificial Turf

Ugly:

DeMarco Murray

The Steelers are top five giving up fantasy points on the ground and Dallas can’t seem to get their running attack going.  With Murray coming of injury two weeks ago I wouldn’t recommend starting him this week.  Stick to whoever you used in his place while he was out, if you still have him.

Bad:

Jonathan Dwyer

The Steelers are also struggling on the ground, as strange as that is to say.  Keep Dwyer on your bench if you have other options.

The Rest:

Ben Roethlisberger isn’t a good start this week, and Tony Romo is barely a QB1 option.  Both Heath Miller and Jason Witten are nice starts at tight end.  It looks like Dez Bryant will play, if so he’s a low end WR1 / high end WR2.  It’s a late game so make sure you have someone you can use if he’s a last minute injury scratch.  Miles Austin makes a great WR2 play, he’s got nice upside in the event Bryant can’t finish the game.  I like Mike Wallace as a WR2 but I wouldn’t start any other Pittsburgh wideouts.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders

Weather: 46/56f Chance Rain

Playing Surface: Grass

Good:

Jamaal Charles

The Chiefs are top five for fantasy points in the run game and the Raiders are struggling to stop the run, although their defensive line surprises once in a while.  Charles is a quality RB1 option.

Take A Chance On:

Jonathan Baldwin

With Dwayne Bowe out, Baldwin will be the number one receiver for KC and should be available on your waiver wire.  Snap him up, especially if you need insurance for one of your late game receivers.

The Rest:

Carson Palmer is barely a starting option this week, and I really don’t like Darren McFadden as a starter.  Hopefully you’ve found another option for McFadden by now.  Brandon Myers is a good TE1, and Denarius Moore is a decent WR2.  Darrius Heyward-Bey is a desperation WR3 play at best.

San Francisco 49ers @ New England Patriots

Weather: 33/39f Rain Likely

Playing Surface: Artificial Turf

None of the match ups favor one team over the other between these two Super Bowl contenders.  Tom Brady is still a strong QB1 against the Niner’s top defense.  Likewise Stevan Ridley is still a good RB1 option and Aaron Hernandez a good TE1.  None of these players should shoot the light out but they should all produce good fantasy numbers.  I would drop Wes Welker down to WR2 production for this week.  For San Fran, I don’t really like Colin Kaepernick’s chances as a QB1 but many do, so all I can say is start him if you think he’ll come through for you.  Frank Gore is an RB1 as usual, and I think Vernon Davis will break out of his slump and produce OK TE1 numbers.  Michael Crabtree is a low end WR2 at best.

New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans

Weather: 37/67f Slight Chc Showers

Playing Surface: Grass

Good:

Shonn Greene / Bilal Powell

It’s a good match up for the Jets rushing attack but they appear to be going with an even split of the carries so neither one is a solid start this week.  If I has to pick one I’d go with Greene, he’s been the better runner of the two in my opinion.

Bad:

Jake Locker

Kenny Britt

Nate Washington

Short and sweet, I don’t like any of these three as starting options this week.  The Jets have a great pass defense, in the top three for the least fantasy points given up.

The Rest:

Chris Johnson is a real good RB2 start with low end RB1 upside.    Other than that I don’t see any quality starts.  This one is harly shaping up to be a Monday Night Football classic.  Expect a low scoring game with not much fantasy production going on.

Comments (3)

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Steve Braun said:

Late Game Inactives Dez Bryant will play, make sure you have him in your lineup. As expected Brandon Pettigrew is out, looks like Will Heller starts in his place. Don't trust him or Scheffler as a TE1. Donald Jones is out for the Bills. TJ Graham makes a VERY risky replacement I wouldn't do it unless you're desperate for any late game replacement WR. Ronnie Brown sits for the Chargers, hopefully you weren't planning on using him anyway.

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December 16, 2012
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Steve Braun said:

	Early Game Inactives Danny Amendola starts as expected. Bench Chris Givens if you have an alternate. Cecil Shorts is in. Devin Hester will play so forget about Weems. Michael Bush is in for the Bears.
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December 16, 2012
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Steve Braun said:

	RGIII Robert Griffin was officially ruled out late last night and won't even dress. Hope you've got an alternative lined up.
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December 16, 2012
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