Make Your Wife Happy Week!

For many fantasy players out there in pay-for-play leagues, week 15 is your make or break week, basically determining if you make a profit or not.  In most money leagues you are guaranteed a profit if you make the championship game (normally in week 16) so this could be the week that will make your wife happy!  Merry Christmas, honey!  Those 16 Sundays where I ignored you and the kids were all worth it, right?

Anyway, here are my vibes on who to start and sit this week for each team and hopefully make the money to save your Christmas!

Arizona:   If you have any Arizona guys starting for you I don’t know how you made it this far.  What a mess this team has been.  If you do have any of them, I’d sit them with the immortal Ryan Lindley behind center this week.

Atlanta:  The Giants defense has allowed plenty of yards and scoring so any Atlanta guys you would normally roll with (Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez) keep on rolling with them.  Jacquizz Rodgers and/or Michael Turner may make a decent flex play if you need them, but this is a true RBBC (running back by committee) now so it’s hard to know who to trust.

Baltimore:  Denver’s defense has been very strong the second-half of the season and other than Ray Rice it’s hard to recommend playing anyone from their offense.  Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin, and Dennis Pitta are all marginal starters but I wouldn’t feel good about having any of them in my lineup this week.  Baltimore’s defense is going to have trouble getting a lot of points this week against Peyton Manning so I’d find another option.

Buffalo:   Seattle’s defense is perhaps the best in the league now but C.J. Spiller has a chance to do well against them now that Fred Jackson is out for the year.  Spiller is a top-5 talent at the position and has produced whenever he’s had the full load of carries.  Stevie Johnson is going to have it rough against top CB Richard Sherman so he’s a flex play at best.  Every other Bill sits for me.

Carolina:  The Panthers have looked pretty good the last couple of weeks and there’s no reason they can’t continue their recent progress against a mediocre Chargers defense.  Of course you’re going to start Cam Newton but I’d also feel comfortable starting DeAngelo Williams, Steve Smith and Greg Olsen.

Chicago: This is a pivotal week for the Bears, as a win against the Packers gets them back into a tie for first in the division.  For fantasy purposes however, the Bears have been a bit of a sieve, other than Brandon Marshall.  Matt Forte and Michael Bush are basically a RBBC lately and neither has been trustworthy all season.  Jay Cutler shouldn’t be starting on a fantasy team.  It’s Marshall, Marshall, Marshall as the Bears’ mantra this week.

Cleveland:  We could see one and maybe two Browns among the league statistical leaders this week, as the Browns get to face the Swiss-cheese Redskins defense.  Trent Richardson has become a must-start every week and fast-rising rookie WR Josh Gordon should have a banner week as well.  Heck, if you’re desperate even QB Brandon Weeden might be worth a start this time around.

Dallas:  Will Dez play or won’t he?  The answer to that question tells the story about the Cowboys’ fantasy relevance this week.  If he does play then I like Tony Romo to have an excellent week.  If he doesn’t I think that should help Miles Austin and Jason Witten a bunch.  If you have a choice to make about DeMarco Murray, I’d lean to sitting him.  Pittsburgh’s run defense is still pretty stout and should contain him for the most part.

Denver: The Broncos are on a major roll right now and there’s not really anything scary about the Ravens’ D anymore.  You’re obviously going to play Peyton and Demaryius Thomas, but I’d also start Eric Decker and Knowshon Moreno as well.  I’m leery of the TE position with the Broncos, as Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen seem to alternate good weeks.  There are a handful of other defenses that I like better than Denver this week (Seattle, Miami, Detroit to name a few) but if they are your best bet then they should be decent.

Detroit: Arizona’s defense plays much better at home so it could be a surprisingly tough afternoon for Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson.  Of course you’re going to start them but if they don’t meet their norms it wouldn’t be shocking.  Joique Bell is a sneaky flex play this week as he’s started to assert himself as a better back than Mikel Leshoure.

Green Bay:  Aaron Rodgers is probably the only lock to do well in Chicago.  The recent problem with the Packers is that things have been spread around so much between Randall Cobb, James Jones, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, and Jermichael Finley.  The embarrassment of riches means inconsistent production from week to week.   Cobb has been the most consistent of the group but he’s more valuable in a PPR league.  Finley is probably my best bet to have a good week but he’s a lower-tier starter.

Houston: The Colts’ defense leaves a lot to be desired so there’s a good opportunity for Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, and Owen Daniels to do well for their owners in this critical week.  This one should be a shootout so all Texans should perform at or above their norms.   The Colts are generally much worse on the road so the Houston D has an opportunity there as well.

Indianapolis: Andrew Luck for me is a lower-tier starter this week, and other than Reggie Wayne it’s hard to recommend anyone else to start against a tough Texan defense that’s at home.  T.Y. Hilton and Vick Ballard are flex plays at best this week.

Jacksonville: Miami can be passed on but it’s very hard to run against them so if Cecil Shorts plays this week I think he’ll be a good option.  It’s likely that Chad Henne will have to throw against his old team in order to keep up so I could see Shorts, Justin Blackmon, and Marcedes Lewis all be viable starters this week.

Kansas City: If you’re a Jamaal Charles owner you have to be loving the fact that he gets play such a horrendous defense in this critical week.  Charles should be close to the #1 RB this week and he should pay off for those owners who took the risk in drafting him back in the pre-season.   As much as I would love to recommend any other Chiefs against Oakland’s ole defense, they just don’t have the manpower.  TE Tony Moeaki would be the best bet, but he’s not proven enough to say for sure that he’ll put up starter-level numbers.  Dwayne Bowe would be a play but he’s out for the season now.

Miami: It should be a nice week for Reggie Bush and the Dolphin WR crew, as Jacksonville has been giving up passing yards by the chunk.   Bush is a solid #2 RB this week and I’d start Brian Hartline for sure.  Davone Bess is more of a flex play for me but should be very solid in a PPR.  The Miami defense should have a field day against the Jags and they are a top-3 option this week.

Minnesota: Adrian Peterson.  That is all.

New England: It could be a tough week for the Pats against a solid defense but we thought it might be that way last week too and Tom Brady and crew put up four passing TDs.  You can’t sit Brady, Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez, but you might want to think about sitting Stevan Ridley if you’re deep at RB.   The 49ers are not a good matchup for an opposing RB.

New Orleans: You’re obviously going to start Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham.  Marques Colston is a good option this week against the struggling pass defense of Tampa Bay but as has been the case all season, it’s hard to count on any Saints RB.   Brees has struggled quite a bit lately but this could be the week he finally goes berserk for 400+ yards and 4 TDs.

New York Giants: This is a critical week for Eli Manning and crew as they fight to hold off the surging Redskins and Cowboys in the NFC East.  As we saw last week, Atlanta’s defense can be carved up by an opposing passing attack and this should be a good week for Eli, Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks.  The injury to Ahmad Bradshaw leaves an opening for rookie RB David Wilson to perhaps make his mark.  I’d consider him as a flex play and if you’ve been playing matchups at TE after the Gronk injury, then Martellus Bennett is a sneaky-good play at TE as well.

New York Jets:  I really hope you’re not starting any Jets at this point.  Shonn Greene has a chance to have a decent week, as the Titan defense is struggling, but that’s about it.

Oakland:  This game should either be a shootout or a low-scoring game; it will come down to if the offenses or defenses are worse.  Both sides of the ball for both teams are horrific so it will be interesting to see what happens.  Carson Palmer should have a decent week and Brandon Myers has been putting up top-5 TE numbers the second-half of the season.  Palmer’s WR crew has been inconsistent and Darren McFadden is like a box of chocolates as this point (do I really need to finish this, Gump?).

Pittsburgh: This is a huge game for Pittsburgh, as Cincinnati and Indianapolis are now ahead of them in the wild-card race.  The problem for them is it’s just a big of a game for Dallas, also trying to stay alive.  It’s hard to know what we’re going to get from Big Ben and crew this week but the re-emergence of Mike Wallace should help.  I’d feel comfortable starting him and Ben is probably my #10 ranked QB for the week.

San Diego:  The Charger passing game came alive last week against the Steelers and should continue against Carolina this week.  Danario Alexander has been perhaps the best WR in the game the last few weeks (Brandon Marhsall might disagree) and has seemingly come out of nowhere.  If you watch him play though, he resembles Calvin Johnson with his height and jumping ability.  Look for Alexander, Phil Rivers and Malcom Floyd to continue to air it out this week.  Rivers has been inconsistent but should put up starting-level numbers.

San Francisco: Colin Kaepernick hasn’t put up superior passing numbers since taking over for Alex Smith a few weeks ago, but his legs make him a starting-level QB.  I suspect he’ll end up having to throw this week to keep up with Brady and crew so he should have good numbers.  Frank Gore might have a rough go of it but you probably have to start him and hope for the best.  I’m not sure what happened to Vernon Davis but if he is ever going to produce this should be the week for it.  Michael Crabtree to me is a flex play this week.

Seattle: Marshawn Lynch is obviously going to start every week but this would be a good week to play Russell Wilson and maybe even Sidney Rice and Golden Tate if you need a #2 WR.   Wilson should put up starter-level numbers and I’d even play him over Andrew Luck this week.

St. Louis: It should be a good week for Steven Jackson as the Rams will probably try to run as much clock as possible to keep Peterson off the field.  Without Danny Amendola the Rams’ passing game is inconsistent at best and even if Amendola plays this week, he’s going to be gimpy.   The loser of this game is most likely done for the year so it should be a hard-fought defensive game.

Tampa Bay: Doug Martin, Vincent Jackson, Josh Freeman, and even Mike Wililams owners have to be delighted at their good fortune that these guys get to play the Saints this week.   It’s very logical that there are a ton of Martin owners who have made it this far, as he’s probably been one of the best fantasy values relative to his draft position this season.  Jackson is a guy you’ve been starting most weeks and Freeman/Williams have been on the fringes of start-ability.   This week they are definitely worth starting.

Tennessee: This should be the Chris Johnson show, as the Jets have been run on all season while playing strong pass defense.  Yes, Johnson has had a couple of off weeks but should return to form in this one.  Normally I’d say to start Kenny Britt but Antonio Cromartie has been perhaps the best CB in the game this year and might keep Britt under wraps.

Washington:  Of course the big question in DC is “Will he or won’t he?”  At this point it looks like RG3 is going to play but with Mike Shanahan who knows for sure?  The urgency of this game for the Redskins would lead me to believe that he’ll give it a go and if he plays you have to take the risk and start him.  The point potential he provides is too high not to take the chance.  Alfred Morris and Pierre Garcon should both be started if Griffin plays but I would probably sit them if he doesn’t.  Morris is successful primarily because of the skill level of the play-action the Skins run and if Kirk Cousins is behind center then the Browns can focus on stopping Morris.

Well, that’s my take on this weekend.  Hopefully everything works out for your squad (and your relationship with your significant other!) and you advance to your championship games next week!

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