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Written by Chris "Rowdy" Goudey   
Saturday, 01 December 2012 08:41

 

In most fantasy football leagues week 13 is the last regular-season game and is naturally very important for probably around half the teams in each league as they are trying to make the playoffs.  Of course if you are already in the playoffs then week 13 is probably the least stressful Sunday of the fantasy season. That being said, a savvy owner is looking ahead to weeks 14-16 and already tinkering with their lineups and trying to figure out which players have the best matchups.

 


Perhaps the easiest position to maximize your matchups with is with the team defense.  You will hear see some owners who will always try to grab the best defense in their draft and stick with that pick through thick and thin. I’m of the mindset that the #1 defense going into the season is almost never the one who ends up on top at the end of the year, so I never draft a defense until the end and even then, it’s only with week 1 in mind. I have over 20 teams this season and I don’t have the San Francisco, Chicago, Pittsburgh, or Baltimore defense (historically the top defenses) on any of them.  My strategy is to simply play the waiver wire and grab whatever team has the best matchup every week. Now, if you want to be the owner who doesn’t worry about their defense then by all means, keep drafting your defense in the middle rounds, but me, I’d rather use that middle-round pick to draft say, Robert Griffin III or another skill position player who explodes.   Who would you rather have right now – RG3 and play the best matchup each week on defense, or a scrub who did nothing with your last pick and the Chicago defense?

 

 

Let’s get back to the matter at hand. The goal of this column is to make you aware of which team defenses have the best matchups for the next 4 weeks, 13-16. I’m going to assume if you’ve been a regular reader of DobberFootball that you are already in the playoffs, so while it will be nice to have a good matchup this week, I’m looking more to the playoffs.  I am also a big believer in using recent performance as opposed to how a team has done for the whole season.  That being said, here are the rankings of teams and the number of points they’ve allowed on average in the last four weeks in a standard scoring system:

 

  1. (you want your defense to play them the most) – Philadelphia, 14.5
  2. Arizona, 13.0 (if Lindley stays as the starter, they should top this list come playoff time)
  3. N.Y. Jets, 12.7
  4. Pittsburgh, 12.3 (part of this is due to Big Ben being, if/when he returns they move down this list)
  5. Indianapolis, 11.0 (surprised to see them this high as Luck has been pretty good)
  6. Oakland, 11.0 (will be a top 3 pick for me)
  7. San Diego, 10.8
  8. Tennessee, 10.7
  9. Miami, 10.5
  10. Jacksonville, 8.5
  11. Chicago, 8.5 (part of this was the Jason Campbell effect)
  12. Kansas City, 8.5 (I’m surprised they are this low, I would’ve guessed they’d given up top 3 in fantasy points)
  13. Buffalo, 8.3
  14. Carolina, 7.8
  15. Detroit, 7.8
  16. New Orleans, 7.5 (they historically give very few points to defenses, move them down, the San Francisco game was a rarity)
  17. Cleveland, 7.0
  18. Denver, 7.0 (again, Peyton-led offenses are generally down further on this list)
  19. Minnesota, 6.3
  20. Atlanta, 6.0
  21. N.Y. Giants, 5.7
  22. Seattle, 5.7
  23. Green Bay, 5.7
  24. Dallas, 5.3
  25. Houston, 5.3
  26. Tampa Bay, 5.3
  27. St. Louis, 5.0
  28. Cincinnati, 4.8
  29. San Francisco, 4.3
  30. Washington, 4.0
  31. Baltimore, 2.5
  32. New England, 1.7

 

If you look at the list, you’ll notice one big trend, teams with better offenses are at the bottom and teams with pick-prone QBs are at the top. It shouldn’t be a big surprise that New England is at the bottom of the list when they are on pace to be the highest-scoring team in NFL history.

 

Here are my rankings of which defenses should be the best cumulatively over the next four weeks taking their season ranking and upcoming schedule into consideration, and again, I’m placing more emphasis on weeks 14-16.

 

  • Seattle (CHI, ARZ, BUF, SF)
  • Miami (NE, SF, JAX, BUF)
  • Denver (TB, OAK, BAL, CLE)
  • N.Y. Jets (ARZ, JAX, TEN, SD)
  • Carolina (KC, ATL, SD, OAK)
  • Green Bay (MIN, DET, CHI, TEN)
  • Cleveland (OAK, KC, WAS, DEN) Pick them up for this week and next, then drop them for someone else after the KC game.  Miami would be an ideal team to drop them for.
  • Chicago (SEA, MIN, GB, ARZ)
  • San Francisco (STL, MIA, NE, SEA)
  • Houston (TEN, NE, IND, MIN)
  • Pittsburgh (BAL, SD, DAL, CIN)
  • Arizona (NYJ, SEA, DET, CHI)
  • New England (MIA, HOU, SF, JAX)
  • Cincinnati (SD, DAL, PHL, PIT)
  • Dallas (PHL, CIN, PIT, NO)
  • Indianapolis (DET, TEN, HOU, KC)
  • Washington (NYG, BAL, CLE, PHL)
  • Jacksonville (BUF, NYJ, MIA, NE)
  • Oakland (CLE, DEN, KC, CAR)
  • Kansas City (CAR, CLE, OAK, IND)
  • Buffalo (JAX, STL, SEA, MIA)
  • Atlanta (NO, CAR, NYG, DET)
  • Baltimore (PIT, WAS, DEN, NYG)
  • N.Y. Giants (WAS, NO, ATL, BAL)
  • San Diego (CIN, PIT, CAR, NYJ)
  • St. Louis (SF, BUF, MIN, TB)
  • Tampa Bay (DEN, PHL, NO, STL)
  • Detroit (IND, GB, ARZ, ATL)
  • Minnesota (GB, CHI, STL, HOU)
  • New Orleans (ATL, NYG, TB, DAL)
  • Philadelphia (DAL, TB, CIN, WAS)
  • Tennessee (HOU, IND, NYJ, GB)

 

Hopefully you can use these rankings and mix and match your way to playoff victories and ultimately the fantasy championship!








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Dyv said:

Dyv
 Rambler
They were both suspended and then appealed. Browner actually accepted his suspension today (going into effect immediately) but Sherman is appealing his and so will play this week.

It definitely affects Seattle's defense, especially if Sherman loses his suspension and is gone next week or the week after. I would take Seattle down about 5 spots on this list even without their DB's because they have very strong safeties and solid replacement DB's plus a great D line and linebacking group still.
 
December 05, 2012 | url
Votes: +0

ynotzz said:

ynotzz
 ...
didnt the Seahawks lose their top two corners to a 4 game suspension or something this week? And if yes, shouldnt that be taken into consideration?
 
December 02, 2012
Votes: +0
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Last Updated on Saturday, 01 December 2012 10:36