The NFL Family Thanksgiving


Every year at Thanksgiving, some members of the NFL family get together for a holiday football feast.  This year’s invitees include:


Younger brother Houston, looking to show off his newfound success and hoping nobody notices the black eye from last week when he got drunk and got in a bar fight with his crazy second cousin Jacksonville.

 

Uncle New England, the pretentious boor who you begrudgingly admire but trash behind his back, who will try to shrug off missing cousin Gronk as no big deal.


Cousin New York, the blowhard who’s always bragging about his can’t miss investments, who’s losing his shirt after investing heavily in the Sanchez-Tebow merger and he’s the only one in the family who doesn’t see that it’s swirling the bowl.


Great Uncle Dallas with old family money who can barely hide his contempt for you but has you over so he can show off his big house with all the baubles and trinkets.


Nephew Detroit who’s always struggling to keep his head above water but is fatally optimistic that success is just around the corner.


Grandpa Washington, the old timer with the ratty smelly sweater with a pocket full of 10 year old mints whose successes in life are in the past and who now you just hope can stay awake until after the pumpkin pie is served.



Hope everybody enjoys their festivities and has a safe and happy holiday weekend.  Feel free to ask questions about your specific scenario in the comments section below and I’ll try and answer before game time.  Make sure you include league type, number of players, etc.



Houston Texans @ Detroit Lions

 

Weather: Dome

Playing Surface: Artificial Turf


When the Texans have the ball:


Houston

10th in fantasy points scored by QB

12th in fantasy points scored by Receivers including tight ends

4th in fantasy points scored by RB


Detroit

13th in fantasy points allowed to QB

12th in fantasy points allowed to Receivers including tight ends

10th in fantasy points allowed to RB



When the Lions have the ball:


Detroit

9th in fantasy points scored by QB

7th in fantasy points scored by Receivers including tight ends

14th in fantasy points scored by RB


Houston

14th in fantasy points allowed to QB

14th in fantasy points allowed to Receivers including tight ends

1st in fantasy points allowed to RB



Carving the Turkey – Arian Foster


What else can be said about Foster, he’s having his usual stellar season and sits atop the fantasy standings for RB.  He’s a must-start every week and nothing about the Lions, despite their top ten status against the run in fantasy, should make you think twice.


Grownup Table


Matthew Stafford – Despite his struggles this season he’s in the top ten for fantasy QB’s and should start even versus a usually tough Texans defense.


Mikel Leshoure – He’s performing well and should be able to provide decent RB2 numbers


Owen Daniels – Check the injury reports, but he should be able to go and if so he’s a solid TE1.  I’m a little leery about the possibility of him re-injuring his hip during the game but not enough to make him sit at the kiddie table.  If he can’t go then you could try Garrett Graham, he performed well in Daniels’ absence last week but don’t expect him to match Daniels’ usual production.


Brandon Pettigrew – Barely makes it to the grownup table but I have him putting up TE1 numbers this week.


Calvin Johnson – He’s an every week WR1, we’d have him carve the turkey if Foster wasn’t in the picture.


Andre Johnson – Expect low end WR2 high end WR3 production.


Texan’s Defense – They project to a low-end starting D, but JJ Watt alone provides potential for a gravy boat load of sacks.


Kiddie Table


Matt Schaub – Don’t be enamored with his monster week 11 performance, he’ll most likely be his usual mid-range QB2 self this week


Kevin Walter – He’s WR2 on the Texan’s depth chart but no more than a WR5 for fantasy this week


Joique Bell, Kevin Smith – I’m seeing talk about one or both of these guys possibly being productive.  It won’t happen this week.


Detroit Defense – I’d look elsewhere if you’re employing the match up strategy, Houston doesn’t give up much fantasy-wise to opposing defenses.


If you REALLY need someone to fill a seat at the grownup table…


Ryan Broyles – He gets to be WR2 on the Lions by default, he moved to WR3 before Nate Burleson got hurt and now Titus Young is out.  His numbers improved when he got more playing time so it could happen again.


IDP


J.J. Watt is a no-brainer if your league requires a DL, and probably can be started even if there’s no positional requirement at all he’s that good and productive.  Ndamukong Suh or Nick Fairley would be decent choices if you have to play DL or very good choices if you have to play DT.  Danieal Manning and Jonathan Joseph are solid starts if you require DB’s.




Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys

 

Weather: 54/74f Partly Cloudy

Playing Surface: Artificial Turf


When the Redskins have the ball:


Washington

22nd in fantasy points scored by QB (does not include rushing)

21st in fantasy points scored by Receivers including tight ends

2nd in fantasy points scored by RB (including QB)


Dallas

5th in fantasy points allowed to QB

5th in fantasy points allowed to Receivers including tight ends

18th in fantasy points allowed to RB



When the Cowboys have the ball:


Dallas

11th in fantasy points scored by QB

9th in fantasy points scored by Receivers including tight ends

28th in fantasy points scored by RB


Washington

30th in fantasy points allowed to QB

29th in fantasy points allowed to Receivers including tight ends

13th in fantasy points allowed to RB



Carving the Turkey – Jason Witten


Tough call for the spot at the head of the table.  Could just have easily been RGIII or Romo, but I was worried if I picked one over the other there would be a big scene.  Witten only has a single TD but he’s leading by a large margin in catches and is third in yardage for tight ends.  I’m projecting Witten will be in the top three for TE this week.


Grownup Table


Tony Romo – Tasty match up for Romo, the Skins pass defense must look and smell like the big bird about ten minutes before it’s ready to come out of the oven.


Robert Griffin III – RGIII will struggle against the Cowboy’s pass defense but will make up for it on the ground.  Should finish the week safely among the top ten QB’s.


Alfred Morris – Don’t worry about Morris he’ll put up solid RB1 numbers as usual.


Felix Jones – If Fragile Felix can survive the whole game he should be good for average RB2 numbers.  He’s currently questionable and if he can’t go Dallas will use some combination of Phillip Tanner or Lance Dunbar, neither of whom are ready for the grownup table.


Dez Bryant – Has been producing steadily the last few weeks, but Bryant is a bit of a boom-or-bust receiver.  Still I’m predicting WR1 numbers against the weak Redskins pass D.


Miles Austin – The steadier receiver between he and Bryant, count on low end WR1 high end WR2 from Austin.


Kiddie Table


Santana Moss – Won’t do much against Cowboys solid pass D.


Pierre Garcon – This is a tough one, although Garcon played last week he’s listed as questionable for this game.  Unlike some others I’m not ready to proclaim Garcon ready to produce starting WR numbers just yet, especially against the Cowboys.


Cowboys Defense – Unless they can keep RGIII bottled up and under pressure I don’t expect much in the way of fantasy points from this unit.


Redskins Defense – Near the bottom defensively means not many fantasy points to be had.


Not ready for the grownup table


Dwayne Harris – It looks like Harris will be the main beneficiary of Kevin Ogletree’s injury absence, but that certainly doesn’t mean he’ll be fantasy relevant.  He’ll be like the kid in your family who gets to move to the big table and behaves bad enough you have to move him back next year.  Don’t make the same mistake with Harris.


IDP


Demarcus Ware is always a solid fantasy start at LB, other than that there’s not much to speak of in the way of solid IDP match ups.  In a pinch you could start Madieu Williams at FS if you require DB’s or Brandon Carr if you require CB’s specifically.




New England Patriots @ New York Jets

 

Weather: 38/55f Mostly Clear

Playing Surface: Artificial Turf


When the Patriots have the ball:


New England

4th in fantasy points scored by QB

3rd in fantasy points scored by Receivers including tight ends

1st in fantasy points scored by RB


New York

9th in fantasy points allowed to QB

8th in fantasy points allowed to Receivers including tight ends

28th in fantasy points allowed to RB



When the Jets have the ball:


New York

29th in fantasy points scored by QB

29th in fantasy points scored by Receivers including tight ends

17th in fantasy points scored by RB


New England

31st in fantasy points allowed to QB

31st in fantasy points allowed to Receivers including tight ends

11th in fantasy points allowed to RB



Carving the Turkey – Stevan Ridley


Sorry Tom, not this year.  When you’ve got the highest scoring fantasy ground game up against the 4th worst defense for giving up fantasy points on the ground, Ridley’s not only carving the turkey he’s mashing the potatoes and shaking the can-shaped cranberry sauce into a bowl.  Brady may not even have to throw a pass.  He can stuff his face, set up a lawn chair behind the offensive line, relax and undo his belt.


Grownup Table


Tom Brady – As much success as the Pats will have on the ground, we all know Brady will throw the ball enough, and successfully enough, to be a solid QB1.


Aaron Hernandez – Still listed as questionable, the expectation is he will play.  He may not be 100% healthy or effective but he’s still a viable TE1 if he lasts most of the game.


Wes Welker – Locked in as a low end WR1 high end WR2


Jeremy Kerley – Kerley barely makes it to the big table as a low end WR3 if he plays.  He’s listed as questionable currently.


Patriots Defense – Should be able to make enough plays versus the Jets to be a viable start.


Kiddie Table


Mark Sanchez – Unless your league starts 3 QB’s I’d leave Sanchez alone.


Shonn Greene/Bilal Powell – Pats aren’t nearly as bad versus the run as they are against the pass, but the numbers are a bit misleading.  Are they 11th because of an effective run defense or because they get out in front and other teams have to abandon the run?  Regardless, the Jets are talking about a time share between these two which makes neither one worth much.


Dustin Keller – Even against the Pats weak pass defense, Keller is no better than a TE2.


Stephen Hill – He’ll probably be at the wee table for another season while he learns the game.


Jets Defense – Can’t count on holding the Pats to a low score obviously, but not much in the way of splash plays can be expected either.


If you REALLY need someone to fill a seat at the grownup table…


Danny Woodhead/Shane Vereen – Not really sure which of these two is the better option.  I suspect if New England gets a comfortable lead then Vereen will get a decent number of carries.  Woodhead is a hit and miss but my analysis projects 8-10 points so take that for what it’s worth.


IDP


Brandon Spikes is a nice start at LB, Antonio Cromartie is a solid start at DB and a must-start if you need to have a CB.



Write comment
Comments (4)add comment

Steve Braun said:

steve_oshp
NE-NYJ Update Hernandez and Kerley are active for the late game
November 22, 2012
Votes: +0

Steve Braun said:

steve_oshp
What the ??? Someone explain how this makes any sense. Forset is clearly down but no whistle goes and he scores. NFL reviews all scoring plays UNLESS a coach throws a challenge flag on the play in which case they refuse to review it AND stick the team that threw the flag with a 15 yard penalty?????
Brutal!
November 22, 2012
Votes: +0

Steve Braun said:

steve_oshp
Dal-Was update Felix Jones and Pierre Garcon listed as active for today's game
November 22, 2012
Votes: +0

Steve Braun said:

steve_oshp
Joseph is out May want to re-think starting houston's D, megatron could go nuts with Joseph out.
November 22, 2012
Votes: +0
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