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November 2    PDF Print E-mail
Written by Matt Price   
Friday, 02 November 2012 07:28

 

Matt Price weighs in with some great Q&A from our forums - including one of the big questions right now - how to prepare for playoff matchups.  Hop over to our forums every week for questions answered by Matt and other resident experts!

 

 

Week 9. We are officially halfway through the NFL season and two-thirds of the way through the fantasy season. Most leagues start their playoffs in week 14 and end the season with the fantasy super bowl in week 16. If you are in leagues that have their final game in week 17 then you should seriously consider requesting that it be moved to week 16 next year. Many playoff scenarios are wrapped up by the end of week 16 and starters of those playoff teams are rested for at least half, if not all of their team’s week 17 games. Every year elite fantasy players at all positions miss their owner’s final game of the season after getting them to the super bowl. There is no reason to risk having your studs rested during your fantasy super bowl


 

 

Our best question this week involves looking ahead to the all important matchups during the fantasy playoffs. His Dudeness wants to take a look at the best team defenses and kickers to own down the final leg of the fantasy season and into the fantasy playoffs. His options are the Packers, Giants, or Cardinals; Justin Tucker or Greg Zuerlein? He currently owns the Packers and Tucker. His particular league uses a two week playoff format where scores are combined in weeks 14 and 15, and again in weeks 16 and 17 for the super bowl. I do like the 2 week playoff format quite a bit. It allows teams that had a bad day in weeks 14 and 16, to still have a chance at it by scoring big in weeks 15 and 17. I would prefer to use weeks 13/14 and 15/16, but I like the decrease in variance by adding a second week for those all important games.

 

 

I generally don't project team defenses and kickers because it's such a crapshoot week to week. Defensive scoring also varies greatly across league formats. Some reward heavily for sacks and turnovers. Others include total yardage allowed and the score is more heavily weighted in that direction. That said, I do think it is valuable to look at the matchups for them in the fantasy playoffs. Looking at the Packers, they get:

 

 

week 14: Lions

week 15: @Bears

 

week 16: Titans

week 17: @Vikings

 

The Lions and Bears combo could a little rough with the Lions always a threat to score big, but the Titans and Vikings in the Superbowl are both above average matchups. In leagues that reward heavily for sacks and turnovers, the Packers could do very well against one of the worst offensive lines in the league when they face the Bears in week 15, but they might give up 21+ points in doing so. Both the Titans and Vikings scoring totals will be muted and are decent matchups for turnovers as well.

 

Giants:

 

week 14: Saints

week 15: @Falcons

 

week 16: @Ravens

week 17: Eagles

 

2 of the best offenses in the leagues in the first round of the playoffs and then two that can put up a lot of points in any given week for the Superbowl. I don't like it.

 

Cardinals:

 

week 14: @Seahawks

week 15: Lions

 

week 16: Bears

week 17: @49ers

 

That's a tough final stretch in both rounds of the playoffs. I'd roll with the Packers if those are your only 3 choices. More likely though you will be better off playing matchups each week. Do you have to play the same lineup during each two week period or can you play one defense in week 14 and a different one in week 15?

 

Let's dig a little deeper into optimal playoff matchups for team defenses/special teams.

 

Starting in week 17(which again if your league uses, I highly suggest convincing the league to make week 16 the super bowl week for next season) and working our way backwards, here are your best playoff matchups for defenses:

 

week 17:

 

1. 49ers (vs Cardinals)

2. Broncos (vs Chiefs)

3. Seahawks (vs Rams)

4. Texans (vs Colts)

5. Chargers (vs Raiders)

 

week 16:

 

1. Patriots (vs Jags)

2. Packers (vs Titans)

3. Dolphins (vs Bills)

4. Broncos (vs Browns)

5. Texans (vs Vikings)

 

week 15:

 

1. Dolphins (vs Jags)

2. Texans (vs Colts)

3. Seahawks (@Bills)

4. Patriots (vs 49ers)

5. Rams (vs Vikings)

 

week 14:

 

1. 49ers (vs Dolphins)

2. Seahawks (vs Cardninals)

3. Steelers (vs Chargers)

4. Browns (vs Chiefs)

5. Packers (vs Lions)

 

I never like keeping 2 defenses, but in this situation I would advocate holding on the the Packers if possible. It all depends what defenses are available during their week 10 bye though. If for some reason the Niners/Seahawks/Dolphins are available that week I would consider dropping the Packers outright for one of them and just rolling with the new D through the end of the season. If you end up keeping 2 for week 10, I'd drop either Young or Broyles, (probably Broyles) whichever one looks less likely to have consistent value after week 9.

 

 

As for kickers, they are even more difficult to predict. I generally just look for a kicker on a team with a high scoring offense or a dominant defense, preferably in a dome. GZ certainly qualifies. I don't think you can go wrong with either of those guys, but I give the edge to GZ due to kicking in a dome and his penchant for kicking longer (50+ yards = 5 points in most leagues) fgs. Tucker is certainly on the better offense though and may provide more scoring opportunities.


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Last Updated on Friday, 02 November 2012 07:33