|Andrew Hawkins - Worth Keeping?||Tweet|
|Written by Steve Braun|
|Friday, 19 October 2012 06:55|
Just to be clear, Love Him doesn’t mean refuse a trade that will blow your doors off. No player is untradeable if the price is right. And List Him doesn’t mean trade him for a sack of dirty jock straps. Try and trade him for what his current value is worth.
Andrew Hawkins is the 26 year old, 5-7 175 lb wide receiver with the Cincinnati Bengals. He ran a 4.34 forty at his pro day in Toledo so he’s lightning quick. After playing high school ball in his hometown Hawkins went to the University of Toledo where he played receiver and cornerback. While this shows some great athleticism, Hawkins didn’t really excel at either position. He averaged less than two catches and less than one tackle per game over four years. Hawkins went undrafted in 2008 and while he worked out with Cleveland he ended up not playing that year and signed in the CFL. Before playing in the Great White North Hawkins appeared on Michael Irvin’s reality show, vying for a spot with the Dallas Cowboys. He came in second, and went on to play for two years with Montreal where he had limited success - 41 catches for just over 450 yards and five TD’s. Hawkins signed a contract with the Rams in 2011 but was waived before the season started and the Bengals picked him up.
Most likely Hawkins went undrafted in your fantasy league. He did not appear on anyone’s ADP lists that I saw, and for good reason. Other than his high end speed there was nothing in Hawkins’ stature or resume that pointed to him having any success in 2012 with the Bengals. Here are the team WR stats from 2011:
Hawkins posted the fourth best fantasy numbers by a WR last year, in part because Jordan Shipley only appeared in two games. A.J. Green, Jerome Simpson and tight end Jermaine Gresham saw the majority of targets. Hawkins fought it out with Andre Caldwell for whatever scraps were left over. 2012 saw turnover with the receiving corps. Simpson, Caldwell and Shipley are gone, replaced by two 2012 draft picks – third rounder Mohamed Sanu and fifth rounder Marvin Jones. So far in 2012 Hawkins has exploded with over 300 yards and two touchdowns, both numbers exceeding his total 2011 production. Is he having his break-out year, is he a gifted receiver who just needed a chance to show what he can do? We need to look at why he’s having so much success and more importantly, can he continue for the rest of the year and beyond. Here are the 2012 numbers so far:
A.J. Green is obviously the main man again this season and he is looking even better than his fantastic rookie season, showing absolutely no signs of a sophomore slump. Second year man Armon Binns is playing wide opposite superstar Green, but is not getting targeted nearly as much as Hawkins. He’s a rookie who’s still learning the pro game, and while he’s shown flashes of his talent he’s just not getting open consistently. 25 year old Brandon Tate was the number two receiver to start the season but so far has also struggled. He and Binns have been rotating out wide fairly consistently. Marvin Jones has seen limited action in two games but apparently has impressed team brass. Finally, the tight end Gresham is seeing a significant increase in targets, with 25 catches already after 56 in total last year. Overall Cinci is passing more frequently than 2011, 58% of the time vs. 54% last year.
As exciting as it is for Hawkins to be having so much success, I don’t see it continuing. He’s currently lining up as the slot receiver, but outside of game one, he isn’t making the number of catches, or seeing the number of targets, you would expect from that position. He’s only being targeted an average of 6 times per game and besides week one he hasn’t caught more than five passes in a game. As the Bengals have struggled the past few weeks Hawkins numbers have declined, going from 66 yards in week four to 39, 47, and 35 in week 6 with zero touchdowns. He’s currently listed as the third receiver on the team’s official depth chart but that will not last. Neither Sanu nor Jones has done much so far but I strongly suspect one or both will pass Hawkins on the depth chart before season’s end. Hawkins is the 40th highest scoring WR in fantasy right now, and I honestly don’t see him retaining that lofty perch. His 2012 production so far is a case of him being a placeholder until the other receivers on the team assert themselves. So whether or not it will continue will depend mostly on how the rookies perform. And that may depend on how the team performs. The Bengals sat at 3-1 before losing what should have been two winnable games vs. Miami and Cleveland. If the losing streak continues and the Bengals fall out of a playoff spot I suspect the rookies will both see a significant bump in playing time. But in the mediocre AFC they can probably hang around in contention for quite a while if they stay close to .500
The Bengals remaining schedule is favorable for Hawkins, the above teams are ranked based on how many receiving fantasy points they give up per game. Only having to face two teams in the top ten certainly helps Hawkins’ chances for success.
One Year League: List Him. If you own Hawkins this column may have come out a week too late to get full value for him. But I recommend trading Hawkins now if you can get a good deal for him. If you end up keeping him in the short term then hope for a bump in his production weeks 10-13 when the Bengals face weak pass defenses and trade him before your playoffs. Weeks 14-16 look daunting for all the Cinci receivers not named AJ Green.
Keeper/Dynasty League: List Him. Big Time. The Bengals have a young receiving corps and I don’t see Hawkins fitting into their future plans. Binns, Jones and Sanu along with Green are the future. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hawkins released this off season depending on what the rookies can do the rest of the way.
Survivor Pick: Wow tough week, but if you still have these teams they’re worth taking a chance on – New England, Oakland, Minnesota, and Dallas.
|Last Updated on Sunday, 21 October 2012 09:36|