Many people had San Diego Chargers running back Ryan Mathews pegged as a first round fantasy pick coming into 2012. Even after Mathews broke his clavicle in the pre-season and it was clear he would miss the first few regular season games, plenty of poolies were still willing to take a risk. Now I'm not saying Mathews isn't a talented back, or doesn't have the potential to be a great player someday, but he simply hasn't done anything to prove it yet.

Although San Diego coach Norv Turner quite possibly may be the most monotone guy on the face of the planet, he does have a good track record of getting the most out of his running backs. However, there is evidence to show that with the departure of LaDainian Tomlinson and the emergence of quarterback Philip Rivers, the Chargers are now more of a passing team than ever before.

For instance, in 2011 the Chargers ran the ball on average just 27 times per game, which ranked 18th in the National Football League. The year prior they ranked in the top 10. Conversely, the Chargers threw for an average of 289 yards per contest in 2011, which was good enough for sixth overall. Their 36 passing attempts per game also ranked in the top 10. Combine that with Jackie Battle channeling his inner Thurman Thomas in recent weeks and posting four scores in the last three games, and all of a sudden you have a recipe for reduced carries for Mathews.

The third year man from Fresno State has also been quite injury prone over his brief career. The aforementioned broken clavicle this preseason, was preceded by missing six more games over his first two seasons due to injury.

Not to mention, that overall Mathews has a very small body of work so far. He has just five 100 yard rushing games in his career, and just barely cracked 1,000 yards in 2011. In order for a back to be considered a major player in the fantasy football world, he should at the very least have proven himself in the past.

The one area Mathews has proven himself in, unfortunately for the Chargers and his owners, is coughing up the ball. Mathews has 11 career fumbles in just 24 games, which works out to be nearly a fumble every other week. While fumbles themselves do hurt your fantasy squad, it's the ripple effect that can do the most damage. For example, a couple of weeks ago against Atlanta Mathews fumbled near the goal line. Turner then indicated the next day that he may consider removing Mathews from future goal line situations. This could mean huge lost points for poolies. There is nothing worse than watching your back carry the ball down the field, only to have another ball carrier collect an all important six points.

It doesn't really take much for a player to be overhyped. You see a talented runner like Mathews as a featured back in a potent offense and you think there is no way they shouldn't have great success. Expectations become so lofty it gets tough for a young player to meet them. Unfortunately fantasy football leagues are not won on potential. Mathews has an excellent shot to be great at some point, but he is just not quite there yet. The proof is, and always has been, in the pudding.

Feel free to follow me on Twitter at @amato_mike

Comments (3)

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Matt Price said:

respectfully disagree Jackie Battle is the one to ignore, not Mathews. I advocated buying low last week and I hope you did because that window is closing. If you can't get him by Sunday you might never be able to get him at bargain bin prices. In one league I was able to trade Steven Jackson and Joe Flacco for him last week and couldn't be happier. I probably could have got him even cheaper, but I like to make my trade partners comfortable so they will be willing trade partners in the future.

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October 10, 2012
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Wendal17leafs said:

	Believe the Hype I will ride Ryan Mathews all the way Fantasy football stardom!!!!!!!!!! His injury in the preseason was a blessing in disguise for those willing to spend a high first round pick on him. But if he forgets how to fumble the ball, he has all the tools to be an elite back, and has already put up elite numbers in 2011's injury shortened season.
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October 05, 2012
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rtstr said:

unproven? How can you say Mathews is unproven? You aren't acknowledging the fact that he also had nearly 500 yards receiving last year, and 50 receptions. Even in a non-ppr receiving yards are key for a RB. 500 yards receiving is basically 6 more games of high-level rushing. And while "barely cracking 1000 yards", he did so at nearly 5 yards per carry. Only Ray Rice, McCoy, MJD, and Foster had more total yards then he did. And Mathews missed 2 games. Most leagues are a PPR and he is clearly a top 5 back in that format. Only concern is injuries, but not sure how you can imply that he's not a very rare and valuable in fantasy. It's not hype, it's fact. If you ask me, it's an ultimate buy-low time on Mathews and after this week it may never be again. Sure there is a huge risk with him right now, but I think it's worth it. I see no reason why I would advise people to steer clear of a player with such an upside, because very few players have it.

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October 05, 2012
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