What a wild weekend of football week 6 was. Anyone that says they know what is going to happen on Sundays is just lying. In the fantasy football analysis business the very best of us get things right only about 60% of the time. For that reason it is important to be humble and admit your mistakes. Here are some players I was definitely wrong about going into the 2013 season.
What I thought:
Over the last half of the 2012 season Cam Newton was the best fantasy QB in the land. I thought Cam would pick up where he left off and would still have designed runs and goal line scoring opportunities. I had Cam Newton ranked as QB4 behind only Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers.
What has happened:
Newton has mostly disappointed aside from big games in week 2 and week 6. Cam is currently QB12 after 6 weeks (including bye). With 3 weeks of mediocre to bad production and two top 10 weeks, it seems clear that owning Cam Newton this season is going to be a rollercoaster ride.
What went wrong:
Offensive coordinator Mike Shula seems hell bent on making Cam Newton a traditional stay in the pocket passer instead of playing to his strengths as a runner and playmaker outside of the pocket. He has taken away many of the designed runs and goal line opportunities that Newton has had a lot of success at the last two years.
What I thought:
Going into the season I had CJ Spiller as my RB4 and 4th overall player across all positions. In 2012 C.J. Spiller had a quietly historic season in which he averaged more than 6 yards per carry.. If Adrian Peterson didn’t have the amazing season he did coming off ACL surgery, we would have all been talking a lot more about what Spiller did last season.New Bills head coach Doug Marrone said in one press conference that he would “run Spiller until he pukes.”, The hype Spiller was receiving in the media combined with what he was able to do last season led to me ranking inside the top 5 overall players.
C.J. Spiller as only topped the 100 yard mark once in six games. He has also only found the end zone once this season. through six games, Spiller is currently RB29. Part of the problem is his relative invisibleness in the passing game. Since week 2 he has only three total receptions. Doug Marrone has definitely not been “running him until he pukes” and Spiller has been banged up for most of the season. All of these factors are contributing to his depressed value, but I think he is definitely a buy low target and I still believe in his talent. The current QB situation isn’t helping matters, but with either a healthy E.J. Manuel or Thad Lewis, Spiller will still have top 5 upside in any given week.
What I thought:
Since his breakout season in 2009, we have known that when completely healthy Austin has top 10 upside in any given week. We have also known that he has a history of soft tissue injuries, primarily with his hamstrings. This past offseason there were many reports that the Cowboys were managing him differently and that they believed it would help him avoid such issues in 2013. He was routinely going in the 8th and 9th round in fantasy drafts where I thought he was a complete steal. I believed it was a great price for a WR that I believed still had top 20 upside with top 10 potential in any week.
After week one the call was looking great. On 12 targets Austin had 10 catches for 72 yards. Since then Miles Austin has been out with hamstring issues and only has five catches on 9 targets. With Austin missing time, the rookie Terrance Williams has emerged and at this point I don’t think he is going to give back the job once Austin is completely healthy.