**HERNANDEZ ARRESTED!!  Wow, this changes that TE landscape and proves I was dead wrong.  The police weren't failing to arrest him due to lack of evidence, they were just correctly building their case?**

 

Instant uptick:

 

Gronkowski

Tebow (SLEEPER value - requires him to become a TE)

 

So, I'm struck by this history lesson...  an NFL star racing down the freeway in a white SUV, only vuja de - this is a white Audi and not a white Ford Bronco.  O.J. got nothing on Hernandez!

 

As an after thought, remember all of that Tim Tebow should be a TE talk from the last two years?  Well, he's in New England now - and I see no reason why he'd ever play QB.  As a late round flyer, snag Timmy, who could easily reinvent himself as a TE in the most prolific TE-based offense in the NFL.

 

While we're on the topic of college QB's and their NFL roles - what do you make of Shoelaces?  Denard Robinson was drafted in the middle rounds by Jacksonville purely with the notion that they needed more speed/playmakers.  Coaching staff has already announced they intend to get him 10-15 touches per game, but the traditional Fantasy outlets are all denouncing that as 'not enough' to make a difference and that his hybrid potential isn't enough to make him draftworthy in your league.  Let's walk through actual, math, though, just for the sake of actual review instead of talking heads who say things but don't understand football.  At 10-15 touches per game (let's call it 12.5 just for the sake of math) - that would amount to 12.5x16 = 200 touches as a rookie.  Kordell Stewart, the last 'slash' had the most rushing attempts in his career at 96 carries in 2001 and the most receptions in his career at 17 receptions in 1996.  Combined, that's 113 touches.  We're talking about 200 for Denard?  Kordell's rushing yardage in 2001 was 537 yards.  His receiving yardage in 1996 was 293 - that's 830 yards (and 8 combined TD) for 113 touches.  We're casually giving Denard 200 touches and discarding him as useless?  Sorry, what 4 team league do you play in where 800 yards and 8 TD isn't draft worthy?  In our traditional 12-14 team leagues that production was good enough to be around what we got from Pierre Thomas and Mike Wallace last year.  If we do take that production (yes, I'm cheating borrowing Kordell's best years) for 113 carries and turn it into the 200 carries noted above it's a whopping 1200 yards combined rushing & receiving.  I'm not coming close to predicting 1200 yards from Denard this year (you'll find out exactly where we have him in our guide scheduled for initial release July 20!) but we see a lot more upside in him than the guys with journalism degrees and less fantasy sports experience are projecting.  I've seen some of the big box media outlets rank Denard as the #75-80th best RB this year.  Target him in the 12th-14th round of your draft as your 4th or 5th RB.  He's nowhere near a guarantee, but playing behind Maurice Jones-Drew in an offense in dire need of playmakers for a coaching staff who's already planning high usage is a very solid formula for sleeper status.  All the talent in the world won't produce from the bench, so this kind of talk from the coaches is enough to get me intrigued.  And, really, drafting Aaron Rodgers isn't how we win fantasy football leagues - everyone can do that.  Drafting the backup RB in the late rounds who slides in on your bye weeks and produces well is far more important than nailing the obvious studs who are locks for the Hall of Fame.

 

 

VERY EARLY study of ADP/Rankings for the 2013 football QB/RB/WR sets up like this:


QB:  Massive Top End Depth

5 QB (Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Manning, Newton) who could all be #1 QB this year.

6 More (Stafford, RG3, Kaepernick, Ryan, Russell Wilson, Luck) who could all be top 5 QB this year

Strategy application:  Take whichever of these 11 falls to you in the 5th round or later.  Don't be in a rush this year for QB.

 

RB:  1 Clear Stud, and a posse of 8-10 all pretty even in the next tier

Top Dog:  Adrian Peterson looks absolutely primed and is the clearcut #1 RB at this point

Next Group:  You can make a very convincing argument for any of Trent Richardson, Arian Foster, Maurice Jones-Drew, Doug Martin, Jamaal Charles, CJ Spiller, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Marshawn Lynch and even Alfred Morris to be right there.  That's not even counting Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray or Darren McFadden.

Strategy application:  AP if you can get him, otherwise scoop the remainder in rounds 2-4 at RB this year.

 

WR:  Calvin Johnson and then tiers break down pretty traditionally

 

Top Dog:  Calvin Johnson was an absolute beast last year - and he played hurt, too.  Watch for more effective play with the added dimension of Reggie Bush opening up even MORE space for Megatron to operate and the continued maturation of Stafford plus health for all.


Next Groups:  We'll break down the tiers more effectively in future notes, but there is a clear Tier 2 of 5-6, Tier 3 of 6-8 and a tier 4 of another very valuable 6-10 more.


Strategy application:  Grab Calvin Johnson at #1 or #2 overall - behind AP he's the biggest difference maker from what we can see so far.

 

In a nutshell?  Fantasy Football 2013 looks like a Big 2 and then the Rest of the league for value.  Many, many more reams of data to review plus camp notes - we'll undoubtedly break down further separation among the top 30 players but if there's any way to bid on a top 2 slot for your league we highly recommend you get into that area.

 

Ramblings will be picking up speed over the next week and transition into daily updates by mid July.  Tune in for quick takes as we get ready to launch huge ugprade going into year 2 at Dobber Football.  Also - we're looking for a few more writers, let us know if you're interested via the 'job opportunities' link above.


Fantasy kick off is around the corner - time to get real advice from real players - let the madness begin!

 

 


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Matt Price said:

Matt Price
... Ballard is the perfect Gronkowski handcuff in the last round of your draft. If you miss on Jimmy Graham in the 2nd and Gronk is still there in the 3rd I think it is worth pulling the trigger. Even if he misses the first 3-4 weeks of the season, 8-10 games with Gronk plus 4-6 games of whatever late round TE you prefer is better than every TE not named Jimmy Graham
June 27, 2013
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