Josh Gordon

 

 

Which WR's made the tough catches over the middle and which ones alligator-armed your fantasy team?

 

As part of the 2013 fantasy season review, I thought it would be interesting and maybe beneficial to have a look at which players performed above expectations and which ones let us down fantasy-wise.  The best way to do that is to compare their fantasy production with respect to their average draft position or ADP.  For those few who don’t know, there are many web sites that gather the results of hundreds or thousands of online fantasy drafts and determine on average how high players got drafted.

For the purpose of this article I’m using data from fantasypros.com.  They gather draft data from other sites like ESPN, MyFantasyLeague and others and then average the average draft positions from all these fantasy league sites.  We’ll take a look at each position and compare where they ranked at their position versus where they were drafted at their position.  Undrafted players ADP is one higher than the number of players listed and noted with *.

 

The Wide Receivers

 

WR Rank

Player

Team

FPts

WR ADP

Rank vs. ADP

1

Josh Gordon

CLE

165.2

38

37

2

Calvin Johnson

DET

149.2

1

-1

3

Alshon Jeffery

CHI

144.6

46

43

4

Antonio Brown

PIT

142.2

23

19

5

A.J. Green

CIN

136.5

3

-2

6

Andre Johnson

HOU

135.8

8

2

7

Demaryius Thomas

DEN

131.7

6

-1

8

Pierre Garcon

WAS

130.9

20

12

9

DeSean Jackson

PHI

130.6

26

17

10

Eric Decker

DEN

126.1

21

11

11

Brandon Marshall

CHI

122.1

5

-6

12

Vincent Jackson

TAM

118.9

12

0

13

Jordy Nelson

GNB

115.3

18

5

14

Dez Bryant

DAL

113.5

2

-12

15

Torrey Smith

BAL

110.1

22

7

16

Anquan Boldin

SFO

103

31

15

17

Kendall Wright

TEN

102.9

57

40

18

Harry Douglas

ATL

100.9

116

98

19

Julian Edelman

NWE

100.2

77

58

20

Victor Cruz

NYG

99.8

11

-9

21

Brian Hartline

MIA

97.8

54

33

22

Keenan Allen

SDG

95.7

90

68

23

Michael Floyd

ARI

95

42

19

24

Mike Wallace

MIA

93.8

24

0

25

TY Hilton

IND

93.4

29

4

26

Nate Washington

TEN

88

84

58

27

Marques Colston

NOR

87.6

13

-14

28

Rod Streater

OAK

86.5

73

45

29

Larry Fitzgerald

ARI

84.9

7

-22

30

Hakeem Nicks

NYG

84.6

19

-11

31

Riley Cooper

PHI

81.4

85

54

32

Golden Tate

SEA

79.8

40

8

33

Doug Baldwin

SEA

78.4

99

66

34

Wes Welker

DEN

77.8

15

-19

35

Cecil Shorts

JAX

77.7

28

-7

36

James Jones

GNB

77.6

27

-9

37

DeAndre Hopkins

HOU

76.7

45

8

38

Greg Jennings

MIN

76

34

-4

39

Steve Smith

CAR

74.5

25

-14

40

Emmanuel Sanders

PIT

73.9

43

3

41

Marvin Jones

CIN

71.6

140

99

42

Terrance Williams

DAL

70.1

91

49

43

Jerome Simpson

MIN

69.7

114

71

44

Dwayne Bowe

KAN

67.3

14

-30

45

Jarrett Boykin

GNB

67.3

125

80

46

Cordarrelle Patterson

MIN

66.2

50

4

47

Brandon LaFell

CAR

64.2

63

16

48

Denarius Moore

OAK

63.2

47

-1

49

Tavon Austin

STL

62.9

30

-19

50

Danny Amendola

NWE

62.5

16

-34

51

Roddy White

ATL

62

9

-42

52

Rueben Randle

NYG

61.1

51

-1

53

Steve Johnson

BUF

60.7

33

-20

54

Donnie Avery

KAN

60.2

70

16

55

Eddie Royal

SDG

60.1

139

84

56

Julio Jones

ATL

58.7

4

-52

57

Chris Givens

STL

58.1

39

-18

58

Ted Ginn Jr.

CAR

57.9

108

50

59

Robert Woods

BUF

57.6

79

20

60

Kenny Stills

NOR

57.5

80

20

61

Jerricho Cotchery

PIT

57.2

141

80

62

Aaron Dobson

NWE

51.3

59

-3

63

Reggie Wayne

IND

50.8

17

-46

64

Jeremy Kerley

NYJ

49.3

81

17

65

Marlon Brown

BAL

49.2

105

40

66

Kris Durham

DET

49

143

77

67

Ace Sanders

JAX

48.64

115

48

68

Vincent Brown

SDG

47.2

48

-20

69

Mohamed Sanu

CIN

46.9

61

-8

70

Kenbrell Thompkins

NWE

46.6

44

-26

71

Santana Moss

WAS

46.4

72

1

72

Greg Little

CLE

45.6

62

-10

73

Randall Cobb

GNB

45.6

10

-63

74

Dexter McCluster

KAN

45.4

78

4

75

Jacoby Jones

BAL

44.4

60

-15

76

Santonio Holmes

NYJ

41.5

75

-1

77

Justin Blackmon

JAX

41.4

49

-28

78

Jarius Wright

MIN

40.3

102

24

79

Mike Brown

JAX

40.3

143

64

80

Jason Avant

PHI

40.2

98

18

81

Andre Roberts

ARI

39.7

67

-14

82

Andre Holmes

OAK

39.3

143

61

83

Rishard Matthews

MIA

39

143

60

84

Nate Burleson

DET

38.9

71

-13

85

Austin Pettis

STL

38.4

124

39

86

Lance Moore

NOR

38.4

36

-50

87

Leonard Hankerson

WAS

37.5

96

9

88

Davone Bess

CLE

36.2

94

6

89

Cole Beasley

DAL

36.1

143

54

90

David Nelson

NYJ

35.7

143

53

91

Justin Hunter

TEN

35.4

92

1

92

Tiquan Underwood

TAM

34.7

143

51

93

Jermaine Kearse

SEA

34.6

101

8

94

Stephen Hill

NYJ

34.2

65

-29

95

Darrius Heyward-Bey

IND

33.5

53

-42

96

Aldrick Robinson

WAS

33

121

25

97

Brandon Gibson

MIA

32.6

89

-8

98

T.J. Graham

BUF

31.3

112

14

99

Tandon Doss

BAL

30.5

143

44

100

Brian Quick

STL

30.2

68

-32

101

Stedman Bailey

STL

28.6

138

37

102

Robert Meachem

NOR

28.2

133

31

103

Marquise Goodwin

BUF

27.4

111

8

104

Luke Willson

SEA

26.8

143

39

105

Keshawn Martin

HOU

25.1

143

38

106

Earl Bennett

CHI

24.3

88

-18

107

Jerrel Jernigan

NYG

23.9

143

36

108

Sidney Rice

SEA

23.1

41

-67

109

Griff Whalen

IND

22.7

143

34

110

Josh Morgan

WAS

22.7

93

-17

111

Miles Austin

DAL

22.2

32

-79

112

Ben Watson

NOR

21.9

143

31

113

Mike Williams

TAM

21.6

35

-78

114

Drew Davis

ATL

21.6

143

29

115

Darius Johnson

ATL

20.6

143

28

116

Kevin Ogletree

TAM/DET

19.4

134

18

117

Andre Caldwell

DEN

16.5

143

26

118

DeVier Posey

HOU

15.5

143

25

119

Kerry Taylor

ARI/JAX

15.4

143

24

120

LaVon Brazill

IND

15

143

23

121

Travis Benjamin

CLE

15

117

-4

122

Malcom Floyd

SDG

14.9

55

-67

123

Damian Williams

TEN

14.6

143

20

124

Jaron Brown

ARI

14

143

19

125

Kyle Williams

SFO/KAN

13.6

132

7

126

Brittan Golden

ARI

13.6

143

17

127

Andrew Hawkins

CIN

12.8

83

-44

128

Clyde Gates

NYJ

12.2

143

15

129

Josh Boyce

NWE

12.1

107

-22

130

Brandon Stokley

BAL

11.5

104

-26

131

Jacoby Ford

OAK

11.4

64

-67

132

Chris Owusu

TAM

10.9

143

11

133

Jeremy Ross

GNB/DET

10.7

143

10

134

Brice Butler

OAK

10.3

143

9

135

Kenny Britt

TEN

9.6

37

-98

136

Deonte Thompson

BAL

9.6

143

7

137

Dwayne Harris

DAL

8.6

109

-28

138

Ryan Broyles

DET

8.5

52

-86

139

Chris Hogan

BUF

8.3

143

4

140

Eric Page

TAM

8.2

135

-5

141

Junior Hemingway

KAN

8

143

2

142

Josh Cribbs

NYJ

7.62

143

1

143

David Johnson

PIT

7

143

0

144

A.J. Jenkins

KAN

6.8

74

-70

145

Nick Toon

NOR

6.8

97

-48

146

Jeff Maehl

PHI

6.7

136

-10

147

Stephen Burton

JAX

6.7

143

-4

148

Myles White

GNB

6.6

143

-5

149

Denard Robinson

JAX

6.6

143

-6

150

Seyi Ajirotutu

SDG

6.4

129

-21

151

Markus Wheaton

PIT

6.4

76

-75

152

Austin Collie

NWE

6.3

100

-52

153

Dane Sanzenbacher

CIN

5.4

143

-10

154

Niles Paul

WAS

5.1

143

-11

155

Teddy Williams

ARI

5.1

143

-12

156

Marlon Moore

SFO/MIA

4.6

131

-25

157

Patrick Edwards

DET

4.6

103

-54

158

Erik Lorig

TAM

4.4

143

-15

159

Domenik Hixon

CAR

3.9

142

-17

160

Michael Preston

TEN

3.7

143

-17

161

Lestar Jean

HOU

3.5

113

-48

162

Joe Webb

MIN

3.3

118

-44

163

Kellen Davis

SEA

3.2

143

-20

164

Louis Murphy

NYG

2.9

130

-34

165

Jonathan Baldwin

SFO

2.8

143

-22

166

Skye Dawson

TAM

2.7

143

-23

167

Josh Cooper

CLE

2.6

143

-24

168

Derek Moye

PIT

2

143

-25

169

Chad Hall

KAN

2

143

-26

170

Jeremy Ebert

JAX

1.8

143

-27

171

Kassim Osgood

SFO

1.7

143

-28

172

Tori Gurley

CLE

1.5

143

-29

173

Damaris Johnson

PHI

1.4

128

-45

174

Dominique Davis

ATL

1.36

143

-31

175

Marcus Easley

BUF

1.3

143

-32

176

Brian Tyms

MIA/CLE

1.2

143

-33

177

Kevin Cone

ATL

1.2

143

-34

178

Armanti Edwards

CAR/CLE

1

143

-35

179

Ben Obomanu

NYJ

0.8

143

-36

180

Eric Weems

CHI

0.8

143

-37

181

Trindon Holliday

DEN

0.7

143

-38

182

Brandon Tate

CIN

0.6

143

-39

183

Marquess Wilson

CHI

0.3

143

-40

184

David Reed

IND

0.2

143

-41

185

Quinton Patton

SFO

0

87

-98

186

Joe Anderson

CHI

0

143

-43

187

Ryan Whalen

CIN

0

143

-44

188

Tobias Palmer

JAX/SDG

0

143

-45

189

Bryan Walters

SEA

0

143

-46

190

Russell Shepard

TAM

0

143

-47

191

Michael Campbell

NYJ

0

143

-48

192

Brian Robiskie

ATL

0

143

-49

193

Chris Harper

SFO/GNB

0

143

-50

194

William Beatty

NYG

0

143

-51

195

Ryan Spadola

MIA

0

143

-52

196

Matt Slater

NEW

0

143

-53

197

Micheal Spurlock

DAL/DET

0

143

-54

198

B.J. Cunningham

PHI

0

143

-55

199

Marvin Austin

MIA/DAL

0

143

-56

200

Lavelle Hawkins

SDG

0

143

-57

201

Stephen Williams

SEA/JAX

0

119

-82

 

 

Top Performers Relative to ADP

 

 

WR1’s

 

Alshon Jeffery – CHI: The second year receiver had a breakout season after mostly underwhelming in his rookie year.  With Cutler at the helm, Jeffery and Marshall make a formidable 1-2 punch at WR.  Expect more of the same production from Jeffery in 2014.

 

Josh Gordon – CLE: Gordon was the lone bright spot on an otherwise terrible Browns offense.  Gordon’s ADP of the 38th WR taken stems from his two game suspension at the start of the season.  Not just that he would miss two games but for the off the field conduct that earned him the suspension.  Off field concerns are still there but after the season he put up and the assumption there will be a new QB in Cleveland, the skies the limit for Gordon if he behaves.

 

 

Antonio Brown – PIT: Brown had a huge season making the departure of WR Mike Wallace mostly irrelevant.  Brown was even better in PPR leagues racking up 110 catches.  In 2014 he’ll be the uncontested number one receiver from the start, and with Emmanuel Sanders possibly leaving in free agency Brown will be an even bigger focus of the passing game.

 

 

WR2’s

 

Harry Douglas – ATL: The Falcons 2013 season was a disaster but don’t tell that to Douglas.  After never clearing 500 yards in a season Douglas broke 1,000 thanks to the injuries to Julio Jones and Roddy White.  Assuming both of those guys are back Douglas won’t come close to hitting those numbers, but if Atlanta and QB Matt Ryan can get the offense humming like years past, Douglas has at least proven his ability and should be a bigger part of the offense.

 

Keenan Allen – SDG: A stunning debut for the 21 year old rookie as the entire Chargers offense wildly exceeded expectations.  We don’t often see a rookie receiver put up the numbers Allen managed, as he’s now established himself as the number one man in San Diego.  There’s no reason other than if the entire offense takes a step back that Allen can’t duplicate or even improve on his 2013 numbers.

 

Julian Edelman – NWE: All the pre-season talk about the Patriots receiving corps revolved around which rookie would be the one to get the most targets, Aaron Dobson or Kenbrell Thompkins.  And many thought the Patriots would have to find another WR somewhere to fill the number one role.  Turns out we underestimated Edelman and drafted 76 WR’s before him.  Very tough to predict what will happen with him in 2014 as he is a free agent.  Even if he is re-signed, one or both of Dobson and Thompkins may pass him on the depth chart during training camp.  Or they may bring someone else in to fill the role.

 

Kendall Wright/Leon Washington – TEN: Slated to be the number two and three WR in Tennessee caused both Wright and Washington to be drafted late.  Turns out number one Kenny Britt imploded, allowing Wright and Washington to both clear 900 yards receiving.  It’s all the more impressive given the injury to QB Jake Locker and the fact there was little on the depth chart besides these two and unproven rookie Justin Hunter.  With a new coaching staff coming in the offense should improve.  Expect Wright to approach or exceed the same numbers in the number one role, while Washington will likely cede some targets to Hunter.

 

Brian Hartline – MIA: With the Dolphins signing Mike Wallace and the offense less than high octane, fantasy owners’ expectations for Hartline were a little low.  He managed to put up similar numbers to Wallace, and similar numbers to his 2012 season.  Wallace should be drafted as a low end WR2/high end WR3 next year as he’s shown he can put up the numbers with QB Ryan Tannehill.

 

 

WR3’s

 

Marvin Jones – CIN: The main reason why Jones made this list is due to his 122 yard 4 TD game against the Jets.  But the second year receiver did prove himself capable of being a solid number two receiver behind superstar AJ Green.  He won’t approach 10 TD’s again in 2014 and he’ll likely be drafted too high by GM’s who just look at this 2013 totals.  Don’t be one of those guys.  Jones likely won’t post WR3 numbers next year but will likely be a viable WR4 with some upside.

 

Doug Baldwin – SEA: If WR Percy Harvin had played the entire season instead of just one game, Baldwin probably wouldn’t have made this list.  But the 25 year old showed us he’s capable of being counted on when needed.  Assuming Harvin’s healthy in 2014, one of Baldwin or Golden Tate – assuming the free agent is brought back – will be relegated to the number three receiver slot, which would mean fantasy death in Seattle’s run first offense.  We’ll have to watch how things go in the offseason and preseason to get an idea of Baldwin’s role.

 

Riley Cooper – PHI: Based on Cooper’s off-field racial incident, not to mention his previous career high of 315 receiving yards, most fantasy owners expected little from Cooper and subsequently he was the 85th WR drafted.  Lo and behold the team put the incident behind them and Cooper was a productive number two receiver for the Eagles potent offense.  Cooper’s a free agent, and depending on what the team does with fellow UFA Jeremy Maclin, Cooper may or may not be back.  We do know QB Nick Foles will be back as the starter so if Cooper returns we should expect similar numbers next year.

 

Rod Streater – OAK: With number one WR Denarius Moore only playing 13 games, and being limited in three others, Streater was the main beneficiary.  Not much was expected from Oakland’s offense which helped push Streater to the 73rd WR drafted.  With WR Andre Holmes showing very well in the second half and assuming Moore comes back healthy in 2014, it’s not clear what role Streater will have.

 

 

WR4’s

 

Jarrett Boykin – GNB: It’s easy, and incorrect, to credit Boykin’s success simply due to the injury to Randall Cobb.  Rodgers missed seven games too and whether Rodgers was there or not Boykin played well in his second season.  And he was the third string behind Jordy Nelson and James Jones.  With Jones being a free agent and probably not returning, Boykin cements the number three slot and in Green Bays offense he should get plenty of targets and be at least a WR4 next year.

 

Terrance Williams – DAL: Williams ended up playing most of the season as the number two WR given Mile Austin’s continuing hamstring problems.  Many fantasy GM’s thought if anyone it would be Dwayne Harris or Cole Beasley taking Austin’s place when he inevitably suffered through injuries.  Williams took advantage of the opportunities given to him and put up solid numbers.  He probably won’t be drafted as late in 2014 nor should he be.

 

 

Worst Performers Relative to ADP

 

 

WR1’s

 

Julio Jones – ATL: Injuries are a fact of life in fantasy football, unfortunately for those who drafted Jones around his 3rd WR ADP he was lost for the year early.  All indications are he’ll be back and healthy for 2014 but the fact it appears to be a recurrence of a previous injury problem makes one worry a little about his chances of staying healthy.  It’s more of a worry in dynasty and keeper leagues, but perhaps Jones falls a little to the 5th or 6th WR drafted next season.

 

Randall Cobb – GNB: Like Jones, Cobb was simply the victim of injury.  It’s great that he was able to return before the end of the season, from a fantasy perspective it gives us more confidence that he’ll be back healthy next year and should be drafted in the same #10 WR area.

 

Roddy White – ATL: An injury-riddled season derailed White who, although didn’t miss too many games, was limited to essentially a decoy on the field in several others.  As he proved in the late stages of the season when finally healthy, he can still play at a WR1 level and should be drafted as such in 2014, although I doubt he will be.  May be a nice value pick.

 

Dwayne Bowe – KAN: Bowe signed a big contract after 2012 and proceeded to finish as just the 44th best fantasy WR.  Yes QB Alex Smith was part of the problem but fantasy owners knew Captain Checkdown was going to be there before they drafted.  Bowe’s ADP should be in the more realistic WR3 vicinity in 2014.

 

Larry Fitzgerald – ARI: A little surprising Fitz is on this list, especially when you see he nearly hit 1,000 yards and scored 10 TD’s.  But 28 WR’s were better than that for fantasy so it really comes down to Fitzgerald simply being drafted too high.  While QB Carson Palmer was head and shoulders above anyone there in 2012, their offensive line wasn’t improved nearly enough and probably after WR Michael Floyd’s success as a rookie we should have expected he’d see more targets when defenses focused on Fitzgerald.  Fantasy owners will adjust their pre-draft ranking of Fitzgerald for 2014.

 

 

WR2’s

 

Reggie Wayne – IND: Another purely injury related situation as opposed to underperformance.  Wayne was on his way to a similar fantasy season as he had in 2012 when he was lost for the season.  His rehab is apparently going well, he’s under contract for a reasonable $4 million in 2014 and he wants to keep playing.  There’s no reason he won’t be a quality WR2 next season.

 

Danny Amendola – NWE: It would be easy to say Amendola disappointed due to missing four games due to injury, but him missing at least a couple of games should have been factored into his ADP already given his injury history.  Amendola played well but didn’t come close to putting up Wes Welker numbers.  I expect he won’t be drafted as a high end WR2 again next year.

 

Tavon Austin – STL: Savvy fantasy owners know better than to expect a rookie wideout to end up in the top twenty WR’s.  Austin’s numbers were right about where we should have expected, although if QB Sam Bradford hadn’t missed more than half the year Austin might have reached his 30th WR ADP.  Then again he only scored TD’s in two games and only cleared 100 receiving yards once.  Austin should improve a fair bit in 2014, perhaps even as high as he was drafted this past season.

 

 

WR3’s

 

Kenny Britt – TEN: Britt was so bad, or thought of as such by the coaching staff, that he was a healthy scratch more than once.  He dressed for 12 games but didn’t clear 100 receiving yards for the year.  Britt feels he was treated unfairly and is a free agent, it’s pretty clear he’ll be leaving Tennessee.  Where he ultimately ends up will determine much of his fantasy value, but it will be difficult to trust him to perform for his new team.  I won’t be drafting Britt in 2014.

 

Miles Austin – DAL: Austin suffered through his usual injury problems, and despite appearing in 11 games with Romo and the mostly pass-happy Cowboys offense, Austin only managed 244 yards.  Rumors are the Cowboys will cut him loose in the offseason.  Whether or not that happens I don’t expect Austin to have much fantasy value no matter where he plays.

 

Mike Williams – TAM: Williams injured his hamstring and then tried to play through it.  It was a bad decision as he ended up tearing it and was gone after 6 games.  He wasn’t lighting up fantasy scoreboards before the injury, but part of that was the team’s horrible 0-9 start.  Williams is a talented 36 year old signed to a reasonable contract.  Expect a nice rebound in 2014 with the new coaching staff on board.

 

Sidney Rice – SEA: Rice was lost at the midway point of the season with a torn ACL.  Up until Rice had seriously underwhelmed, putting up only 15 catches and 231 yards as what should have been the number one WR role with Percy Harvin gone.  Rice is due way too much coin in 2014 for the Seahawks to keep him after that performance.  Assuming Rice gets cut we’ll have to see where he lands before assessing his fantasy value for next year.

 

Lance Moore – NOR: Moore ended up being passed on the WR depth chart by speedster Kenny Stills.  His contract calls for $3.1 million but will apparently count over $5 million against the cap.  Having two receivers playing the deep threat role is a luxury the cap strapped Saints just can’t afford.  If Moore stays his fantasy value will be limited, if he goes it will all depend on where he lands.

 

 

WR4’s

 

Ryan Broyles – DET: Broyles is the very definition of hard-luck where injuries are concerned.  It’s one thing to be prone to minor injuries that cause you to miss a game or three.  But Broyles at age 25 has already had multiple ACL tears and an Achilles tear, that’s bordering on the ridiculous.  Broyles is no lock to be ready for 2014 and his 2013 results were poor.  We can cut him some slack because he was playing after missing so many games, but eight catches in six games playing with QB Matt Stafford isn’t enough to continuing to hold a roster spot for him.  The new coaching regime will likely cut ties with Broyles and who knows if he’s be able to play again.

 

Malcom Floyd – SDG: Floyd suffered a serious neck injury and missed all but two games.  He didn’t perform all that bad in the two games, putting up 149 yards on just 6 catches.  But there is concern whether or not the 32 year old will be able to recover enough to play again.  If he can come back 100% healthy he’ll probably be the number two receiver for Philip Rivers which will make him valuable for fantasy.

 

Darrius Heyward-Bey – IND: Heyward-Bey and TY Hilton were the subject of much preseason debate as to who would be the number two WR with the Colts.  Hilton eventually won the battle and DHB not only showed he wasn’t number two caliber, he couldn’t hold off challengers Da’Rick Rogers and Griff Whalen for playing time.  He may get another chance to win a job in 2014 but it won’t be higher than number three assuming Reggie Wayne returns.

 


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