Peyton Manning

 

Which QB's delivered the goods for fantasy GM's and which ones dropped the ball?

 

 

As part of the 2013 fantasy season review, I thought it would be interesting and maybe beneficial to have a look at which players performed above expectations and which ones let us down fantasy-wise.  The best way to do that is to compare their fantasy production with respect to their average draft position or ADP.  For those few who don’t know, there are many web sites that gather the results of hundreds or thousands of online fantasy drafts and determine on average how high players got drafted.

 

 

For the purpose of this article I’m using data from fantasypros.com.  They gather draft data from other sites like ESPN, MyFantasyLeague and others and then average the average draft positions from all these fantasy league sites.  We’ll take a look at each position and compare where they ranked at their position versus where they were drafted at their position.  Undrafted players ADP is one higher than the number of players listed and noted with *.

 

 

The Quarterbacks

 

 

QB Rank

Player

Team

FPts

QB ADP

Rank vs. ADP

1

Peyton Manning

DEN

383

3

2

2

Drew Brees

NOR

320

1

-1

3

Cam Newton

CAR

279

5

2

4

Andy Dalton

CIN

269

15

11

5

Andrew Luck

IND

277

9

4

6

Philip Rivers

SDG

268

22

16

7

Matthew Stafford

DET

266

8

1

8

Russell Wilson

SEA

259

12

4

9

Ben Roethlisberger

PIT

251

16

7

10

Tony Romo

DAL

261

11

1

11

Alex Smith

KAN

253

24

13

12

Colin Kaepernick

SFO

241

7

-5

13

Tom Brady

NWE

243

4

-9

14

Nick Foles

PHI

244

34

20

15

Ryan Tannehill

MIA

230

25

10

16

Matt Ryan

ATL

231

6

-10

17

Robert Griffin III

WAS

213

10

-7

18

Joe Flacco

BAL

202

19

1

19

Carson Palmer

ARI

195

17

-2

20

Geno Smith

NYJ

176

30

10

21

Eli Manning

NYG

162

13

-8

22

Ryan Fitzpatrick

TEN

162

38

16

23

Jay Cutler

CHI

154

18

-5

24

Aaron Rodgers

GNB

152

2

-22

25

Mike Glennon

TAM

143

66

41

26

Chad Henne

JAX

146

41

15

27

Josh McCown

CHI

136

65*

38

28

E.J. Manuel

BUF

133

26

-2

29

Terrelle Pryor

OAK

124

31

2

30

Sam Bradford

STL

119

21

-9

31

Christian Ponder

MIN

107

29

-2

32

Case Keenum

HOU

104

65*

33

33

Jason Campbell

CLE

105

65*

32

34

Michael Vick

PHI

101

14

-20

35

Jake Locker

TEN

100

28

-7

36

Matt Schaub

HOU

101

20

-16

37

Matt Cassel

MIN

98

42

5

38

Brandon Weeden

CLE

90

27

-11

39

Kellen Clemens

STL

79

65*

26

40

Matt Flynn

OAK/BUF/GB

72

35

-5

41

Thaddeus Lewis

BUF

45

65*

24

42

Brian Hoyer

CLE

40

65*

23

43

Kirk Cousins

WAS

33

32

-11

44

Josh Freeman

TB/MIN

30

23

-21

45

Tarvaris Jackson

SEA

16

65*

20

46

Blaine Gabbert

JAX

12

33

-13

47

Jeff Tuel

BUF

12

46

-1

48

Matt Simms

NYJ

10

65*

17

49

Matt Barkley

PHI

2

65*

16

50

Seneca Wallace

GNB

4

65*

15

51

Matt Hasselbeck

IND

2

59

-8

52

Josh Johnson

CIN

2

65*

13

53

Kyle Orton

DAL

2

65*

12

54

Brock Osweiler

DEN

1

65*

11

55

T.J. Yates

HOU

1

65*

10

56

Derek Anderson

CAR

0

54

-2

57

Ryan Quigley

NYJ

0

65*

8

58

Landry Jones

PIT

0

65*

7

59

Colt McCoy

SFO

0

43

-16

60

Curtis Painter

NYG

0

65*

5

61

Shaun Hill

DET

0

45

-16

62

Luke McCown

NOR

0

65*

3

63

Charlie Whitehurst

SDG

-1

65*

2

64

Chase Daniel

KAN

-1

65*

1

 

 

 

Top Performers Relative to ADP

 

 

QB1

 

 

Philip Rivers – SD: After two years of generally ugly performances, Rivers and the Chargers offense took off and reached wholly unexpected heights in 2013.  There’s no reason to think he can’t duplicate it in 2014 based on the improvements they made to their offensive line alone this past season.

 

 

 

Nick Foles – PHI: Foles was in the competition with Michael Vick to win the starter’s job coming out of training camp, but it was Vick who ultimately started under center week 1.  But when Vick got injured Foles stepped in, started 10 games and was mostly fantastic.  His fantasy numbers were skewed slightly by his 7 TD performance against Oakland, but still he did more than enough to win the 2014 starting job.  Running Chip Kelly’s offense for 16 games should put Foles squarely in the QB1 conversation, especially after a full pre-season getting number one reps in camp.

 

 

Andy Dalton – CIN: Dalton fairly quietly ended up as the number 4 fantasy QB in 2013.  I think if you didn’t look at the numbers and were asked who the top 5 fantasy QB’s were you wouldn’t have thought to put Dalton’s name in there.  As his younger receivers and tight end Tyler Eifert develop Dalton should be firmly in the top 10 if not higher again next year.  UPDATE: With the Bengals promoting Hue Jackson to OC expect a greater emphasis on the run game as they have already indicated.  Dalton will have a tough time getting into the top 10 but may end up a low end QB1.

 

 

Alex Smith – KC: Smith snuck into the top 12 fantasy QB’s based on a sudden opening up of the offense after mid-season.  During their 9 game unbeaten streak Smith barely registered on fantasy radars as the Chiefs scored little but gave up even less.  Don’t plan on Smith being a QB1 in 2014.  As long as KC’s defense is as good next year as it was this year when they were healthy, Smith will manage the game to a 10-7 conclusion if that’s all he needs to do.

 

 

QB2’s

 

 

Mike Glennon – TB: Glennon took over at QB in week 4 and never looked back.  He finished as the 25th best fantasy QB and obviously would have finished even higher if he’d started since week one.  With the new coaching regime in Tampa next year I imagine Glennon will be a mid-level QB2 as he continues to develop.

 

 

Josh McCown – CHI: McCown appeared in 8 games for the Bears but only started 5 and still ended up as the 27th best fantasy QB.  The Bears re-signed starter Jay Cutler to a monster deal and McCown has hinted at retiring although the Bears say they’d like him back.  Despite his success this year, McCown will be a backup again in 2014 if he plays and therefore fantasy irrelevant unless the starter wherever that may be gets hurt.

 

 

Case Keenum – HOU: Keenum took over for a very ineffective Matt Schaub and started well before showing his inexperience and struggling mightily the rest of the way.  We’ll have to see what the new coaching regime wants to do at QB but if they decide to go with Keenum he won’t be close to a QB1 in 2014 but could develop into one down the road.

 

 

 

Worst Performers Relative to ADP

 

 

QB1’s

 

 

Aaron Rodgers – GB: Rodgers was well on his way to being his usual high end QB1 self until injuring his shoulder.  There’s absolutely zero worries about Rodgers for 2014, barring another injury he’ll be a top 5 fantasy QB again.

 

 

Matt Ryan – ATL: Certainly a lot of the blame for Ryan’s poor season is because of losing Julio Jones for the season in week 4 and WR Roddy White being hobbled by injuries most of the year.  But when a team falls apart that drastically it’s got to be cause for some concern.  We’ll assume Jones and White both return to full health on 2014 but what effect will the presumed retirement of Tony Gonzalez have on the overall passing game?  I’m concerned Ryan will be drafted a little higher than I’m comfortable with next year.

 

 

Tom Brady – NE: So many fantasy projections had Brady being drafted a lot lower than the number 4 QB spot he ended up at.  It was clear with no Gronkowski for who knows how long and the oft-injured Danny Amendola trying to replace Wes Welker, Brady would likely struggle to maintain his usual top QB value.  But likely come draft day fantasy GM’s couldn’t resist taking him when he was still sitting on the board that late.  Expect more of the same in 2014 unless the Patriots go out and sign at least one veteran wideout.

 

 

QB2’s

 

 

Michael Vick – PHI: Expectations were all over the place with new coach Chip Kelly and his ‘college’ offense.  Vick appeared to be able to run it in spurts but never seemed fully comfortable.  Then came his injury and by the time he got healthy he couldn’t get the starter’s job back.  It’s not clear where Vick will end up in 2014 so it’s tough to gauge what his fantasy value will be.  If he can snag a starter’s job he’ll have fantasy value at least as a streaming QB2 option.

 

 

Sam Bradford – STL: Injuries derailed what was looking like a breakout season for Bradford.  He was flirting with top 5 fantasy QB territory for awhile in the first half of the year before going on IR.  Bradford will again be the undisputed starter in 2014 and with his young receivers getting a year’s experience under their belt, look for Bradford to put up low end QB1 numbers or better next year.  He should be a nice value draft pick.

 

 

Matt Schaub – HOU: Put me firmly in the camp of those wondering what the hell happened to Schaub and the Texans.  Schaub is owed $10 million in 2014 but Houston can – and almost surely will – cut Schaub in the offseason and save about $4 million in cap space and not have to pay the $10 million.  Schaub will have little fantasy value in 2014 as I doubt he finds a starting job anywhere.

 


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